Mda, toate ar fi bune si frumoase daca economia ar fi sanatoasa si Isarescu nu ar pompa miliarde pentru a mentine cursul si care se scurg in afara tarii, de indata ce ajung in piata:
Bancile straine scot orice euro pe care pun mana
"Ne-am imprumutat pentru a sustine cursul si am apreciat leul, insa acum este foarte periculos pentru ca bancile straine cumpara valuta, o scot din tara si mai ies si in castig. Cum prind un euro, cum il transfera in cont la bancile-mama, care il folosesc ca resursa, nu ca expunere"afirma bancherul. El considera ca ar fi trebuit mentinut un leu mai slab care sa ii avantajeze pe exportatori si sa descurajeze cumpararea de valuta, iar clientii cu credite in euro sa fie sprijiniti pe alte cai precum subventionarea dobanzilor de catre stat.
Acum poate inteleg si altii de ce sustineam ca un curs de 4.5 in aprilie-mai era mai aproape de situatia reala a economiei noastre. Incapatanarea de a folosi banii imprumutati doar pentru subventionarea bancilor straine nu mai suporta comentarii, am insistat deja prea mult pe tema asta.
La fel de frumoasa este situatia economica internationala, unde totul e "roz" desi in realitate nimic nu e asa cum pretind aceleasi personaje care au contribuit din plin la situatia actuala:
The following laundry list puts the US Economy halfway between the Intensive Care Ward and the National Morgue:
- Endless War spending could subsidize every household in America with $1000 per year
- Income is trending down in the United States, England, and Japan
- US banks loan loss reserves are at a 20-year low while profound losses continue
- Of the nearly 9000 US banks, 1575 of them posted a Q1 loss
- Bernanke claims $2 trillion is needed by the big US banks, but they pass the Stress Test
- Municipal bonds and state finances are disasters, as they each appeal for USGovt aid
- A shocking 20% of US homeowners have loan balances greater than their home values
- Half of modified loans result in foreclosure within several months
- Jobs report for April revealed jobless level at 8.9% (massaged) and 15.8% (actual)
- Jobs Report for April included 66k worse revised job losses for March and February
- Continuing jobless claims at 6.56 million, grew 220k just last week
- CALPERS pension fund is insolvent, USGovt pension PBGC guarantee fund in deep deficit
- FDIC requested $500 billion in additional funds to cover bank failures (giant failure coming)
- Car sales still down 40% annually, with steep Japanese car sales declines also
- Detroit carmakers are closing down plants, with huge ripples through entire supply chain
- GM & Chrysler restructures are extremely likely to result in Chapter 7 liquidation in time
- GM burned $1.3B in Q1, burns $113 million per day, unable to transition to green cars
- Business investment down 38% in Q1, a RELIABLE LEADING INDICATOR
- Durable goods up 9% in Q1, but only after Q4 was pushed down from bank shock
- Inventory reduction not key, but rather inventory/sales ratio, since sales way down
- Economic contraction despite lower energy costs from crude oil, natural gas, gasoline
- Housing was false foundation since 2002, now in stubborn decline, the Giant Albatross
- Distress sales make up 40% of all housing sales, led by underwater sales and foreclosures
- Cramdown Law rejection means open season on foreclosures, more huge bank losses
- Banks admit that home loan are not modified after all, a revolving door to foreclosure
- Option ARMs, Jumbos, and Commercial mortgage defaults are ramping up fast
- Commercial mortgage bonds have $70-100 billion that cannot be refinanced, sure to default
- Staggering decline in consumer credit, -80% in Q3, minus $31.7B in Q4/Q1
Note that final line item. Never in modern US Economic history has consumer credit gone negative. Its growth fell sharply in 3Q2008, but it contracted (reduced, shrunk) by $31.7 billion on an aggregate basis in 4Q2008 and 1Q2009.
In ce priveste manipularea pretului la metalele pretioase in intentia de a ascunde inflatia care sta sa cada pe capul banilor de hartie, am mai explicat deja cum stau lucrurile. Atat in articolele despre aur cat si prin linkurile celor de la E2020. Ei bine, se pare ca si in aceasta privinta avem de-a face cu o bomba cu ceas:Gold/Silver Manipulation Over in 30 Days?
I conclude that smart money is being placed for a massive rise in the gold price in the next 30 days and silver in the next 60 days (which probably means within 30 days for both metals) and again by December.
Only sophisticated traders tend to be in the precious metals option market so when there is a huge build up betting on a particular direction that is typically a directional indicator as I have shown was the case for the last two big moves in the precious metal bull.
The flat contango in gold and silver suggests there is a shortage developing of precious metals for delivery. We know that two large banks hold almost 100% of the commercial net short position. They need desperately to cover their exposure if the market is about to make a big move.
It looks as if that is precisely what is happening.
Ei bine, am mai afirmat deja ca pana in iunie ma astept sa vad schimbari in trendul de crestere impulsionat puternic de naivitate si manipulari in luna aprilie. Si uite ca se apropie si iunie cu pasi repezi. Ramane sa vedem ce va urma... :)
Ce sa urmeze Flavian, vacanta de vara, asta urmeaza. Abia in toamna vedem ce si cum.
RăspundețiȘtergereLumea traieste inca in Land Of Fantasy.
Cu lungitul, ce sa zic. Picajul din toamna a fost misto, dar pe multi i-a luat prin surprindere. Ala din martie a fost cam urat, mai ales ca lumea deja cazuse in galeata cu pesimism. Is curios acuma, oare a treia oara e cu noroc ? La o adica, de cate ori poti sa mai zgaltzai sandramaua subreda inainte sa se darame ?
RăspundețiȘtergereCe-i drept, inflatia incepe sa-si cam arate deja coltii, iar infuziile de capital si bailouturile incep sa tina in joc deflatia. Ei bine, cred totusi ca la al treilea picaj al burselor, vom avea iar o crestere la dolar proabil pe la 1.25 sau chiar mai mult. Mai cred ca atunci va fi punctul culminant al scaderii preturilor, iar apoi vom avea inflatie la greu sau un blocaj pur si simplu al sistemului financiar cu totul, daca cateva banci majore intra in falimente si incetare de plati.
Ca tot scenariul asta va dura cateva luni, sunt de acord. Dar ma astept sa vad startul dat undeva prin iunie. Sa vad in vara primele semne gen bursele si dolarul clatinandu-se si cursul la aur scapat din lesa manipularii.
Iar la toamna, om vedea. Cel putin la noi, vin alegerile. De care mi-e cel mai lehamite sincer... :(
Si eu cred ca pana in toamna nu o sa fie nici o prabusire.
RăspundețiȘtergereVrei sa piarda Basecu alegerile?
De ce au luat un imprumut atat de mare?
Ca sa amane deznodamantul.
Ca dupa alegeri dezastrul va fi si mai mare decat daca s-ar fi produs la timp, pentru ca peste efectele crizei se suprapune si rambursarea imprumutului, asta-i alta problema.
Deceneu - mai speri ca daca o iau la vale lucrurile pe plan international, la noi o sa fie totul calm si bine ? Ar fi frumos, daca n-ar fi aproape imposibil.
RăspundețiȘtergereDe ce crezi ca stau eu cu ochii pe burse, pe US si UK in special, ca pe o bomba cu ceas ? :)
In '90 am spus ca marii colosi industriali nu vor avea viitor, si ca industria usoara, comertul, turismul si cooperatia se preteaza la privatizare si in ele sta speranta.
RăspundețiȘtergereAsa era logic, dar evolutia nu a fost logica.
Turismul, cooperatia si comertul socialist, nu s-au privatizat, s-a distrus, iar marii colosi industriali au continuat sa functioneze inca 10-15 ani si au murit dupa ramurile enumerate.
Cu imprumutul de la FMI si de la UE, guvernantii vor tine economia in resuscitare pana trec alegerile.