Alternative monetare - varianta cos valutar

A doua varianta "oficiala" la sistemul actual este cea propusa de Rusia si China. Cum le-a venit ideea ? Simplu. Cand au vazut ca majoritatea banilor pe care i-au economisit sunt in dolari si ca americanii imprima bani de bailouturi ca nebunii, le-a devenit destul de clara inflatia care va urma.

Si asa au venit cu ideea unui cos de monede, care sa ia in calcul mai multe etaloane valutare internationale in stabilirea valorii unui etalon comun. Usor de zis, mai greu de facut. Ne explica hymerion in cateva cuvinte de ce:

China si`a numarat banii din rezerve

Pe urma, cum sa calculezi ponderea in cosul de valute din care sa iasa noua moneda? Care sa fie criteriile dupa care iei statele care participa : PIB, populatie, marime geografica? Nu in ultimul rand, cum spuneam, vor fi acele state (cu orientari politice clar diferite) capabile sa treaca prin parlamentele lor, acordurile care consfintesc noua moneda?

Asadar e o idee care probabil va ramane la stadiul de idee, desi a mai fost promovata si de cei de la E2020. Care se pare ca au nimerit-o la fix cu 80% din previziunile despre criza. Dar nu prea reusesc sa gaseasca si niste solutii sanatoase:

London G20 Summit: Last chance before global geopolitical dislocation

The solution to this problem is well-known, it is about creating an international reserve currency (which could be called the « Global ») based on a basket of currencies corresponding to the world’s largest economies, i.e. US dollar, Euro, Yen, Yuan, Khaleeji (common currency of oil-producing Gulf states, to be launched in January 2010), Ruble, Real..., managed by a « World Monetary Institute » whose Board will reflect the respective weight of the economies whose currencies comprise the « Global ».

You must ask the imf and concerned central banks to prepare this plan for June 2009, with an implementation date of January 1st, 2010. This is the only way for you to regain some control over currently unwinding events, and this is the only way for you to bring about shared global management, based on a shared currency located at the centre of economic and financial activity.

According to LEAP/E2020, if this alternative to the currently collapsing system has not been initiated by this summer 2009, proving that there is another solution than the « every man for himself » approach, today’s international system will not survive this summer.

Mda, cu ultima parte sunt de acord. Ca sistemul o ia cel mai probabil la vale vara asta, cum am mai afirmat deja. Cu solutia in schimb nu cred ca au nimerit-o. Dar nu mai conteaza, pentru ca la G20 oricum nu s-a votat asa ceva:

What Really Happened in London

With no rancor anywhere on display, the U.S. stock market rallied in the mistaken belief that a more healthy “new world order” had been established. Smiles are nice, and hugs are grand, but fundamentals pay the bills for investors. The G-20 meeting showed no evidence of reform. If anything, it showed that the trends which we have been following are only going to intensify.

Deci SDR-urile sau cosul comun ca si alternative la sistemul actual nu rezolva mare lucru pentru omul simplu. Echilibreaza nitzel balanta de plati intre guverne, dar creeaza sansa unei inflatii generalizate fara limite. Iar pericolul inflatiei mondiale generalizate creste mult mai tare cand toti cei de la varf se pun de acord in privinta asta.

De asta ziceam ca putem face mici corelari cu anumite teorii conspirationiste si New World Order de care auzim in tot mai multe declaratii. Si de care voi detalia si eu un pic in articolul urmator, inainte de a trece la alte monede alternative din lista prezentata in introducere.